Polymarket - Revision history

Ampdot: /* Fractional Kelly betting */

2026-02-20T08:45:29Z

Fractional Kelly betting

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:45, 20 February 2026
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	** Traders should be prepared by having the emotional fortitude to handle losing money. Otherwise, the first time you get burned, you'll reduce your Kelly factor		** Traders should be prepared by having the emotional fortitude to handle losing money. Otherwise, the first time you get burned, you'll reduce your Kelly factor
	** Roughly, for each $1 of upside risk you get beyond 50% Kelly, you get $3 of downside risk		** Roughly, for each $1 of upside risk you get beyond 50% Kelly, you get $3 of downside risk
			*The specific Kelly factor you use for a given market should be based on how confident you are in your prediction, and how many risks you've accounted for (such as model error, oracle risks, black swans)

	The [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2] ampdot made combines most of this information into an interactive tool.		The [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2] ampdot made combines most of this information into an interactive tool.

Ampdot at 08:42, 20 February 2026

2026-02-20T08:42:27Z

@@ Line 18: / Line 18: @@
 == Trading strategies ==
 * For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own
 * have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction
@@ Line 31: / Line 28: @@
 * if you think a probability is approximately correct, place yes and no orders on both sides and then merge them together into USDC later
 * For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart.
-* [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly Learn to make Kelly bets]
+* If you're worried an opportunity will disappear before you have a chance to bet on it, increase your bet size as you gain confidence by researching the opportunity, instead of betting all at once
 == Trading tools ==
-* [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2]
 * [https://betmoar.fun Market analytics that allows seeing which side has more smart vs dumb money]

Ampdot at 08:10, 20 February 2026

2026-02-20T08:10:14Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:10, 20 February 2026
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	* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>		* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>
	** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref>		** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref>
			** The user aenews is known to win markets by manipulating the oracle into misresolving markets. Check if they're betting on a market and be aware of elevated risk if they are
	* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own		* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own
	* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction		* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction

Ampdot at 22:51, 30 January 2026

2026-01-30T22:51:40Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:51, 30 January 2026
Line 31:		Line 31:
	* For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart.		* For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart.
	* [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly Learn to make Kelly bets]		* [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly Learn to make Kelly bets]

			== Trading tools ==
			* [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2]
			* [https://betmoar.fun Market analytics that allows seeing which side has more smart vs dumb money]

Ampdot at 06:13, 17 December 2025

2025-12-17T06:13:02Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:13, 17 December 2025
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	Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first.		Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first.

	==~~= Trading strategies~~ ===		== Hedging / insuring ==
			Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref name=":0">https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios].

			== Trading strategies ==

			* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>
			** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref>
			* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own
	* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction		* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction
	* nothing ever happens		* nothing ever happens
	* thoroughly research things, don't bet on impulse, multiple rounds of analysis are good		* thoroughly research things, don't bet on impulse, multiple rounds of analysis are good
	* place limit orders to get good prices		* place limit orders to get good prices
	* oracle risk (misresolution risk)		* oracle risk (misresolution risk)
	* avoid sports, crypto, mentions, earnings, and stocks. these markets are either random or too efficient due to people poring over spreadsheets already		* avoid sports, crypto, mentions, earnings, and stocks. these markets are either random or too efficient due to people poring over spreadsheets already
	* read and understand the market rules in detail		* read and understand the market rules in detail
	* if you think a probability is approximately correct, place yes and no orders on both sides and then merge them together into USDC later		* if you think a probability is approximately correct, place yes and no orders on both sides and then merge them together into USDC later
			* For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart.
	For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart.		* [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly Learn to make Kelly bets]

	~~== Hedging / insuring ==~~
	Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref name=":0">https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.~~simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios].~~

	~~== Trading strategies ==~~

	* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/~~event~~/~~another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march<~~/~~ref>~~
	** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-~~zelensky~~-~~suit~~-~~polymarket-rebellion/</ref>~~
	* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to ~~trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own~~

Ampdot at 05:53, 17 December 2025

2025-12-17T05:53:22Z

@@ Line 2: / Line 2: @@
 == Trading / betting ==
 The default deposit method costs ~13 basis points or 0.13%. You can avoid this fee by:
@@ Line 10: / Line 12: @@
 Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first.
 == Hedging / insuring ==

Ampdot: /* Trading strategies */

2025-11-12T18:08:25Z

Trading strategies

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:08, 12 November 2025
Line 17:		Line 17:

	* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>		* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>
			** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref>
	* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own		* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own

Ampdot at 18:26, 10 November 2025

2025-11-10T18:26:58Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:26, 10 November 2025
Line 16:		Line 16:
	== Trading strategies ==		== Trading strategies ==

	* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.~~<ref name=":0" />~~<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref>		* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref>
	* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own		* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own

Ampdot at 18:24, 10 November 2025

2025-11-10T18:24:07Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:24, 10 November 2025
Line 12:		Line 12:

	== Hedging / insuring ==		== Hedging / insuring ==
	Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref>https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios].		Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref name=":0">https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios].

			== Trading strategies ==

			* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref name=":0" /><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref>
			* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own

Ampdot: Created page with "Polymarket can be used to make money and to hedge against possible risks. == Trading / betting == The default deposit method costs ~13 basis points or 0.13%. You can avoid this fee by: * Deposit with card: For beginners, this offers the smoothest experience. You don't even need a crypto wallet to do it. * Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS chain yourself and using the "deposit crypto" option. ~10 basis points plus possible bridge fee * Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS cha..."

2025-08-29T01:15:26Z

Created page with "Polymarket can be used to make money and to hedge against possible risks. == Trading / betting == The default deposit method costs ~13 basis points or 0.13%. You can avoid this fee by: * Deposit with card: For beginners, this offers the smoothest experience. You don't even need a crypto wallet to do it. * Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS chain yourself and using the "deposit crypto" option. ~10 basis points plus possible bridge fee * Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS cha..."

New page

Polymarket can be used to make money and to hedge against possible risks.

== Trading / betting ==
The default deposit method costs ~13 basis points or 0.13%. You can avoid this fee by:

* Deposit with card: For beginners, this offers the smoothest experience. You don't even need a crypto wallet to do it.
* Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS chain yourself and using the "deposit crypto" option. ~10 basis points plus possible bridge fee
* Getting USDC on the Polygon PoS chain yourself and swapping for USDC.E yourself. ~5 basis points plus possible swap and/or bridge fee
* For advanced users: The default deposit dialog is an accouintless centralized exchange that enforces OFAC sanctions. Any method to send USDC.E to a Polygon PoS wallet will work. Note that different L2s have different "USDC.E" tokens, and it needs to be USDC.E wrapped by the official Polygon bridge- not USDC issued natively by Circle.

Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first.

== Hedging / insuring ==
Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref>https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios].