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Polymarket: Difference between revisions
→Fractional Kelly betting
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** Traders should be prepared by having the emotional fortitude to handle losing money. Otherwise, the first time you get burned, you'll reduce your Kelly factor | ** Traders should be prepared by having the emotional fortitude to handle losing money. Otherwise, the first time you get burned, you'll reduce your Kelly factor | ||
** Roughly, for each $1 of upside risk you get beyond 50% Kelly, you get $3 of downside risk | ** Roughly, for each $1 of upside risk you get beyond 50% Kelly, you get $3 of downside risk | ||
*The specific Kelly factor you use for a given market should be based on how confident you are in your prediction, and how many risks you've accounted for (such as model error, oracle risks, black swans) | |||
The [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2] ampdot made combines most of this information into an interactive tool. | The [https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/cc354d9e-0510-4334-a777-644449667439 Kelly Bet Calculator v1.2] ampdot made combines most of this information into an interactive tool. | ||