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Polymarket: Difference between revisions
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* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref> | * Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref> | ||
** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref> | ** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref> | ||
** The user aenews is known to win markets by manipulating the oracle into misresolving markets. Check if they're betting on a market and be aware of elevated risk if they are | |||
* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own | * For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own | ||
* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction | * have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction | ||