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Polymarket: Difference between revisions
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Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first. | Always test with small amounts when trying a new method first. | ||
== | == Hedging / insuring == | ||
Polymarket tends to have a bias towards things happening, so it tends to offer poor (but still sometimes useful) prices for insurance.<ref name=":0">https://news.polymarket.com/p/286-to-1m-from-reversing-stupidity</ref> However, it can offer a potentially useful venue to create [https://www.simplify.us/simplify101/what-is-convexity convex portfolios]. | |||
== Trading strategies == | |||
* Avoid markets with ambiguity or misresolution risk. Markets linked to an organization taking action in response to the event may resolve based on when the organization announces it, not when the event happens.<ref>https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1762799039950</ref><ref>https://polymarket.com/event/another-commercial-airline-evacuation-before-march</ref> | |||
** Ask yourself if there is potential for '''semantic ambiguity''' before trading on an event contract and avoid betting if so<ref>https://www.wired.com/story/volodymyr-zelensky-suit-polymarket-rebellion/</ref> | |||
* For large orders in markets with decent volume, place limit orders at or near the current price and wait for fills to trickle in if you don't expect the price to move quickly on its own | |||
* have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction | * have ways of knowing orthogonal to the market and bet when multiple of those point in the same direction | ||
* nothing ever happens | * nothing ever happens | ||
* thoroughly research things, don't bet on impulse, multiple rounds of analysis are good | * thoroughly research things, don't bet on impulse, multiple rounds of analysis are good | ||
* place limit orders to get good prices | * place limit orders to get good prices | ||
* oracle risk (misresolution risk) | * oracle risk (misresolution risk) | ||
* avoid sports, crypto, mentions, earnings, and stocks. these markets are either random or too efficient due to people poring over spreadsheets already | * avoid sports, crypto, mentions, earnings, and stocks. these markets are either random or too efficient due to people poring over spreadsheets already | ||
* read and understand the market rules in detail | * read and understand the market rules in detail | ||
* if you think a probability is approximately correct, place yes and no orders on both sides and then merge them together into USDC later | * if you think a probability is approximately correct, place yes and no orders on both sides and then merge them together into USDC later | ||
* For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart. | |||
For beginners, making money is more about avoiding dumb bets and bet sizing than betting smart. | * [https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TNWnK9g2EeRnQA8Dg/never-go-full-kelly Learn to make Kelly bets] | ||